Archive for January, 2010

Too Much Government Debt

Posted by Power User on Friday, 8 January, 2010

governmentdebt 150x150 Too Much Government DebtIt is argued that a lot of debt becomes too much debt for a country when government debt rises above 90% above national gross domestic product.  Two economists, Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart argue this in their publication American Economic Review and present us with some interesting facts.

They looked at data which was recorded over the course of 200 years and from 44 countries and concluded that at ratios of debt to GDP up to 90%, there’s not much correlation between government debt and economic growth.

Above 90%, however, median economic growth rates fall by one percentage point and average economic growth rates fall by about four percentage points.  That makes the 90% level a kind of make-or-break point for countries that are hoping to grow their way out of debt. If the government debt load climbs above 90% of GDP, economic growth slows so much that growth is no longer a viable solution to reducing that debt.  Above the 90% level, governments serious about reducing their debt load have to increasingly rely on “solutions” such as reducing wages and depreciating their currencies, which might over time increase global economic competitiveness enough to give a boost to national economic growth. In the short to medium term, these “solutions” inflict real pain on the citizens of the countries since they reduce standards of living.  According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) The United States finished 2009 with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 85%. On current trend, the United States will finish 2010 at 94% and 2011 at 98%.The United Kingdom was slightly further away from the cutoff when the International Monetary Fund last updated its numbers in October. At that point, current trends saw the country finishing 2009 at a 69% debt ratio and ending 2011 at 89%. The economic and financial condition of the UK has deteriorated since then, however. The most recent figures show the country finishing 2009 at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 72% and breaking the 90% barrier in 2011.  The two biggest continental economies are in surprisingly similar shape, according to the IMF’s October calculations. France ended 2009 at a 77% debt-to-GDP ratio, according to the International Monetary Fund, and on current trend, will hit an 87% ratio in 2011. Germany ended 2009 at 79% and will end 2011 at 88%.


Funding Retirement Or Paying Off Debt?

Posted by Power User on Thursday, 7 January, 2010

debtretirement 150x150 Funding Retirement Or Paying Off Debt?It is a common dilemma when one must decide if they should stop funding their retirement to focus on paying off debt.  There are very few circumstances where high interest or interest of 9%-12% debt shouldn’t be top priority.  Double digit interest is very difficult to deal with.  If you are dealing with high interest debt, it’s most likely because you haven’t been living within your means.

If we are able to get our interest rate down in to the single digits, we must decide if it is a good time to make retirement a priority or not.  If you decide to fund retirement, you stay in debt longer and pay more interest.

There are a couple other situations where investing may make sense. Consider the following:

First, you only have a specific limit per year that you can contribute to a Roth IRA. (This is currently $5,000 per year — $6,000 per year if you’re 50 or older.) Once you miss the window of availability, you’re out of luck. Your new contributions go toward the current year’s limit. You can’t go back and make up contributions you missed for the past two years once you are out of debt.

Second, if you don’t have the discipline to actually apply any new money to accelerate your progress on debt, then don’t halt your retirement. Decreasing your contributions only to spend the difference at *your vice of choice* may be the single dumbest financial move you can make.

There’s no single answer to this dilemma.

Everyone’s situation is different.  Consider all your options. Don’t continue making a certain decision just because it’s what you’re doing right now.

Start from a blank slate. Could you benefit from a singular focus? Are you willing to make further lifestyle cuts to increase you current contributions?  Examine your options and consider the choices.


Critics Doubt Latest Jobs Bill Will Really Produce Jobs

Posted by Power User on Monday, 4 January, 2010

jobs1 150x150 Critics Doubt Latest Jobs Bill Will Really Produce JobsWhen the Senate takes up a jobs bill later this month or early in February, the debate will center on whether it really will create jobs and be worth plunging the government tens of billions of dollars further into debt.

Republicans scoff at the “Jobs for Main Street Act” title that House Democrats put on their $174 billion package last month. They refer to it as “son of the stimulus,” the $787 billion economic recovery plan of nearly a year ago that they say was ineffective at producing jobs.

In its last vote of 2009, the House narrowly passed the bill, 217-212, without a single Republican supporter.

Democrats tick off the job prospects from the House bill’s $75 billion in infrastructure and public sector spending: tens of thousands of new construction jobs, 5,500 more police officers, 25,000 additional AmeriCorps members, 250,000 summer jobs for disadvantaged youth, 14,000 part-time jobs for parks and forestry workers.

“Why don’t we just put everyone in the United States on the federal government payroll and call it a day?” counters Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Calif.

House Democrats diverted $75 billion from the Wall Street bailout fund to offset some of the costs. Opponents said that amounted to a shell game because unused bailout money is supposed to be used to reduce the deficit, which hit $1.4 trillion in the 2009 budget year.

The Senate, however, has less of an appetite for another costly round of economic stimulus measures, particularly with a vote on tap for Jan. 20 to again raise the ceiling on the government’s total debt just a month after upping it to $12.4 trillion.

Conspicuously absent from the House plan were President Obama’s proposals to attack unemployment through tax credits for small businesses that create jobs and for homeowners who make their dwellings more energy efficient.

A job-creating tax credit for small businesses has support among some Democrats in the Senate, even though critics fear it may be too complex to work.

“Small business people have too much to do just to keep their businesses afloat to try and figure out some fancy, complex credit,” Lawrence Lindsey, an economic adviser to former President George W. Bush, told a Democratic panel last month.

But Gene Sperling, an adviser to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, said tax credits would empower growing small businesses.

“If these have even a marginal incentive on even a few … employers, the bang for the buck in terms of job creation would be one of the highest of any of the types of incentives that we’ve had,” Sperling said.

The job creation issue is complicated. Much of the money in the House bill goes to programs that may stimulate the economy but don’t appear to directly put people to work.

There’s $41 billion to extend unemployment benefits for six months and $12.3 billion to extend a health insurance subsidy for people who have lost their jobs. There’s extension of a child tax credit for poor families, $23.5 billion to help states cover Medicaid costs and $23 billion so states can support some 250,000 education jobs over the next two years. An additional $2.8 billion goes to clean water and environmental restoration projects.

Even the investment in “shovel-ready” highway and bridge projects may not immediately translate into a reduction in the nation’s 10 percent unemployment rate.

Republicans cited government figures showing that, as of Sept. 30, only 9 percent of $27.5 billion for highways in the first stimulus bill had been spent. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that of the $39 billion in the new House jobs bill directed to the departments of Transportation and Housing and Urban Development, only $1.7 billion will get spent before next October.

A lot of the money “hasn’t even gotten out of Washington yet,” said Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House’s second-ranked Republican. “Why is it still here if it was designed to create jobs?”

Rep. James Oberstar, D-Minn., chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, said some 8,000 highway and transit projects — more than half those designated under last February’s stimulus bill — are under way, creating or sustaining 210,000 direct jobs. When indirect jobs are included, that number reaches 630,000, he said.

The low federal spending rate, committee officials said, is because the treasury outlay comes at the end of the process, after the contractor bills the state and the state bills Washington.

Dan DuBray, spokesman for the Interior Department’s Bureau of Reclamation, said his agency will have no problem putting to work the $100 million it would receive under the jobs bill to provide clean drinking water to rural areas. “Projects in Reclamation are much akin to planes waiting on the taxiway waiting to take off.”

Matt Jeanneret, spokesman for the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, agreed that “a lot of jobs” have been saved by the stimulus act, although in many cases federal money is basically replacing lower levels of private or state investment. The unemployment rate in the construction industry remains at about 19 percent, almost double the national level.

The stimulus is “a needed shot in the arm, but the real solution is a long-term highway and transit investment bill,” Jeanneret said. Congress has put off consideration of a six-year $450 billion infrastructure measure to replace the highway and transit act that expired in September.

The CBO has estimated that employment was 600,000 to 1.6 million higher in the third quarter of 2009 because of the stimulus act.

Source: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/03/critics-doubt-latest-jobs-really-produce-jobs/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%253A+foxnews%252Fpolitics+%2528Text+-+Politics%2529